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In Case You Missed It: This Week in Nevada Politics

By Elizabeth Crum | 10:07 am September 15th, 2011

Here is my latest ICYMI installment with a nice round-up of snippets, blurbs and links, Dear Readers.

Presidential Race

This week, Gov. Sandoval endorsed Texas Gov. Rick Perry for governor.

On the eve of the CNN/Western Republican Leadership Conference presidential debate in Las Vegas next month, a national Democratic-aligned group will convene a summit here.

A CNN poll says the Republican Party is split right down the middle between tea party supporters and those who do not support the movement.

RNC chief Reince Priebus this week said there still time for other candidates to get in the GOP race.

2nd Congressional District

After an easy win on Tuesday, Mark Amodei took office this morning as the newest U.S. House member representing Nevada. The oath was administered by House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio. Amodei was sworn in along with Bob Turner, a Republican from New York who won his own special election.

The Nevada House delegation seniority, per @RollCall now goes as follows: Rep. Amodei is No. 433, Rep. JoeHeck is No. 382, and Rep. Berkley is No. 147.

A spokesman for Sharron Angle says she will be watching Nevada’s newest congressman closely.

Is a special election in Washoe County in September 2011 a national bellwether? Former Nevadan and Politico reporter Molly Ball says yes, but on the morning of the election Steve Sebelius disagreed and yesterday @RalstonFlash Tweeted the following:

Hey, Harbinger 2012 Caucus, some #s for you: NV voters NOT eligible for #nv02 special represent 65% of NV electorate. Breakdown: 46%D-32%R.

Translation:  The 2nd congressional district does not represent or reflect state voter registration statistics, nor is a special election comparable to a regular/presidential year general election, so people shouldn’t read too much into Amodei’s 20-point win in the district and/or 10-point win in Washoe County.

Congressional Candidates Without Borders

State Sen. John Lee headed to D.C. this week to talk about his congressional candidacy with Sen. Harry Reid and other Democratic Party leaders.

U.S. Senate Race

The conversation continues re: Rep. Shelley Berkley’s advocacy for legislation that benefitted her husband’s medical practice (the original New York Times story is here). Jon Ralston penned a good column saying there are (at least) two ways to look at the situation.

And Berkley tells the LVRJ she now thinks she should have disclosed.

Miscellaneous

Gov. Sandoval wants to talk to Washoe and Clark Counties about their refund requests.

UNLV might go ahead with an arena project, sans taxpayer dollars.

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission is being asked for clarification on its recent ruling on Yucca Mountain.

Jane Ann Morrison wrote an interesting piece this week about the constitutional reasons for the “leap frogging” of Nevada’s high court judges as they take turns being Supreme Court chief.

Reid had a 20-minute Twitter town hall this week.

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Sandoval Fares Well Among Nevada Voters Following 2011 Legislative Session

By Sean Whaley | 2:51 pm July 19th, 2011

CARSON CITY – Gov. Brian Sandoval’s reluctant decision to support an extension of tax increases to balance the state budget in the 2011 legislative session does not appear to have caused him any lasting damage in the eyes of voters, according to the results of a recent survey by a GOP polling firm.

A survey of voter attitudes conducted by The Tarrance Group on July 12 and 13 shows that 53 percent of Nevada voters approve of the job Sandoval is doing, with only 29 percent indicating they disapprove of his performance. The remainder of those polled had no opinion.

Not surprisingly, the Republican had strong GOP support statewide at 73 percent to 10 percent disapproving. Approval among Democrats was far weaker, 37 percent to 46 percent disapproving.

Gov. Brian Sandoval has a strong favorable rating in a recent poll. / Nevada News Bureau file photo

Sandoval successfully bucked the trend that impacted many other governors in their budget battles, and “has maintained solid his job approval ratings among Nevada voters,” said Dave Sackett of The Tarrance Group in his analysis of the results.

“There is no gender gap in Governor Sandoval’s job approval ratings, as he stands with a 54 percent job approval rating among men and a 53 percent job approval rating among women voters,” Sackett said in a memo dated July 15.

“It is also important to note that a majority of voters in every region of the state, including Clark County, indicate that they approve of the job he is doing as governor,” he said.

Mike Slanker of November Inc., a political consulting firm that worked on Sandoval’s campaign, said the governor has a broad and deep base of support in Nevada. The numbers show that Sandoval is one of the most popular governors in the country, he said.

The findings are based on telephone interviews with 501 “likely” registered voters throughout the state. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. Democrats represented 43.1 percent of those surveyed, Republicans, 36.4 percent and independents, 20.5 percent, closely mirroring the active voter numbers reported by the Nevada Secretary of State’s office as of June.

The results show Sandoval with a 51 percent approval rating in Clark County with 30 percent disapproving. The approval rating is 59 percent in Washoe County, with 27 percent disapproving, and 58 percent in rural Nevada with 27 percent disapproving.

Among Hispanic voters, Sandoval had a 51 percent approval rating with 26 percent expressing disapproval.

Approve Disapprove
All voters 53% 29%
Clark County voters 51% 30%
Washoe County voters 59% 27%
Carson/Douglas voters 57% 27%
Rural NV voters 58% 27%
Men 54% 28%
Women 53% 30%
Hispanic/Latino voters 51% 26%
Republicans 73% 10%
Independents 53% 26%
Democrats 37% 46%

Sandoval, in his first year as governor, proposed no new taxes in his original budget delivered to the Legislature in January. In late May, after the Nevada Supreme Court called into question some of the local revenues he had proposed to use to balance his state general fund budget, Republicans and Democrats agreed to extend some tax revenues that were set to expire June 30 to help balance the budget.

“Governor Sandoval’s reasoned approach to the budget has won support for his efforts that extend well beyond the traditional groups of voters that would be supportive of a Republican governor,” Sackett said. “Solid majorities of both Independent voters and Hispanic voters indicate that they approve of the job that he is doing, as do a majority of self-described conservative Democrat voters in Nevada.”

The Tarrance Group describes itself as “one of the most widely respected and successful Republican strategic research and polling firms in the nation.”

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Union Group Finds Support For Public Workers In Poll

By Andrew Doughman | 12:08 pm March 30th, 2011

CARSON CITY – A poll released today shows that most Nevadans hold government workers in high regard.

Nevadans for Nevada, a collective of largely public sector unions, hired Grove Insight to conduct the poll of 500 registered voters.

The poll, which was conducted last week, comes as the salaries, benefits and contracts of unions and public sector workers are increasingly in the public spotlight.

Nick Di Archangel, spokesman for the Service Employees International Union, said that public workers needed to gauge public opinion in lieu of high-profile legislative battles like the one still unfolding in Wisconsin.

“I’ve worked in news for 20 years,” Di Archangel said. “I’ve never seen labor covered like this. … With so much scrutiny on labor unions, it was crucial to find out where people fell.”

Nevada’s Legislature is considering several budget proposals that would reduce salaries for public employees. Legislators may also change how public employees bargain for contracts as well as what they pay into retirement and benefit plans.

Di Archangel said the poll shows that most Nevadans hold favorable views of public employees.

The pollsters for Grove Insight worded the question this way:

“Please tell me overall, do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, neutral, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable impressions of public employees?”

Among the 500 voters who answered, 61 percent held favorable views of public employees, 22 had a neutral opinion, 11 percent had an unfavorable view and 6 percent had no opinion.

In a press release from Nevadans for Nevada, the union group also highlighted that their poll supports raising taxes.

The question on the poll read:

“Right now, Nevada is facing a ONE-POINT FIVE billion dollar budget shortfall. Governor Brian Sandoval has refused to consider any compromise that includes raising some taxes – even if that means deep cuts to local schools. Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Sandoval’s position?”

While 12 percent remained neutral, 31 percent approved of the governor’s position while 57 percent disapproved.

The union poll follows recent polls from the Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce and the Retail Association of Nevada.

Read the union poll here.

 

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Berkley Remains Noncommittal On 2012 Senate Bid

By Nevada News Bureau Staff | 7:41 pm February 15th, 2011

Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley declined again today to commit to a race for the U.S. Senate in 2012 after poll results show Rep. Dean Heller with a commanding lead over incumbent John Ensign in a GOP primary.

Berkley, D-Nev., interviewed by Jon Ralston on his Face to Face television program, said the poll results from January commissioned by Heller showing him with a 15 point lead over Ensign should be no surprise to anyone.

Ensign has been suffering fallout from revelations of his sexual indiscretions with Cindy Hampton, the wife of his best friend and former senior staffer. The Senate Ethics Committee continues to investigate whether Ensign violated the law in attempting to resolve the matter.

“John Ensign knows he is in trouble,” she said. “He is trying to rehabilitate himself with the people of the state of Nevada, his constituents. And I don’t think this poll is a surprise to John.”

Berkley said if she decides to run for the Senate seat, she will not get to select her opponent.

“I think I will let the Republican voters in our state decide who their candidate is going to be,” she said.

The poll of 600 likely Republican primary voters showed Heller with 53 percent to 38 percent for Ensign.

Heller has indicated he is considering a run for Ensign’s seat.

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Dem Mailer Attacks GOP Candidate for State Treasurer

By Elizabeth Crum | 8:20 pm October 31st, 2010

This rather nasty mailer from the state Democratic party was received at some Nevada households this weekend, two days before the elections in a race the latest Mason-Dixon poll says is tied 39-39 percent:

Here is a close up of the text:


And:

You can read our e-interview with Steve Martin on the front page here.

Treasurer Marshall did not respond to our interview request.

Drop your comments below.

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Business Group Sees Tax Hike On Horizon, Opposes Idea Of Major Overhaul Of Nevada Revenue Structure

By Nevada News Bureau Staff | 11:04 am September 28th, 2010

CARSON CITY – The head of Nevada’s Retail Association says a tax increase will likely be needed to balance the state budget next year, and expanding the sales tax to include at least some services is one place to look.

But Mary Lau, president and chief executive officer of the Retail Association of Nevada, said it is not the time for Nevada policymakers to look at a major revamping of the state’s tax structure.

“To try to switch an entire tax system, I will agree with the people that were polled, it is not the time to do an entire tax restructuring or anything else because guess what, the other states that have those other programs are equally in trouble,” she said.

Lau made her comments during an interview Monday with Jon Ralston on the Face To Face television program. She was interviewed following the Retail Association’s release of a poll conducted on behalf of the group looking at Nevada political races and the public’s views on issues including whether taxes should be increased.

The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies pollster Glen Bolger.

The poll shows that only 1 percent of those interviewed support a tax increase on small business, 5 percent support a tax increase on large businesses, 11 percent on casinos, 5 percent on mining companies, 12 percent on the rich and 1 percent on the middle class. Seventeen percent said taxes should be raised on everyone.

Support for raising taxes on everyone was lower than in previous polls however.

Lau said the change is a reflection of the current economy.

“A reflection of we don’t have a job, we don’t have any money therefore how are we going to pay,” she said.

Lau said a tax increase, even if it is only the continuation of a package of revenues hiked by the Legislature in 2009 and scheduled to sunset on June 30, 2011, is likely. The state budget cannot be balanced without a tax increase, she said.

There are areas the state hasn’t taxed, such as services, Lau said. An examination of tax abatements and exclusions the Legislature has put in place over the years is also needed, she said.

Both major party candidates for governor have rejected the idea of tax increases to balance the state budget, although many legislative leaders have said new revenues will likely be necessary.

Lau agreed that a discussion of taxes won’t come until after the Legislature first looks at reforms and efficiencies in state spending.

Audio clips:

Retail Association Chief Mary Lau says now is not the time to revamp Nevada’s tax structure:

092810Lau1 :12 equally in trouble.”

Lau says the economy has dampened public support for a tax increase:

092810Lau2 :11 to sound bites.”

Lau says taxing services and eliminating exemptions is one place for Legislature to look for new revenue:

092810Lau3 :05 of the services.”

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Latest Poll: 95% of Nevadans Think Well of Themselves

By Elizabeth Crum | 10:51 am July 30th, 2010

In April the LVRJ‘s pollster, Mason-Dixon, asked where Nevadans get their news.  You can read all the stats in the story, but my favorite Q&A was at the very end:

A majority consider themselves well informed, 52 percent, while 43 percent consider themselves somewhat informed.

Would love to know how the subjective meanings of “well” and “somewhat” translates into actual factual informed-ness in and among our citizenry.

Of course, Dear Readers, each and every one of you are exceptions to my skepticism.

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Rasmussen Has First Post-Primary Angle-Reid Poll

By Elizabeth Crum | 9:00 am June 10th, 2010

Here.

Angle by 11 points.  5% for “Other.” 6% Undecided.

Poll says “Voters not affiliated with either party prefer Angle by 10 points.”

As I said last night on KTNV, let’s give it about 30 days before we get too excited about numbers.

Team Reid is going to try to crush Angle early and hard so they can call it Done and start focusing resources on all the Dem down-ticket races.

If they hope to have her weather the Category 5 winds of Hurricane Harry (a Harrycane…?) Tea Party Express and/or Club for Growth and/or the RNC better hurry up with major infusions of ad cash into the Nevada airwaves on Angle’s behalf.

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WaTi: Suffolk U Poll Says Angle In Lead in US Senate Race

By Elizabeth Crum | 7:07 am June 3rd, 2010

Despite a sample of 400 GOP likely voters, I am taking this poll done by the Suffolk University Political Research Center with a full shaker of salt (although I think we can be pretty sure the Angle campaign will be using it in a press release later today).

The poll says Angle is now in the lead in the U.S. Senate race with 33% and has Tarkanian and Lowden virtually tied for second at 26% and 25% respectively.

The poll also asked about “intensity” (whether a voter was Definitely, Probably, or Maybe) voting for the candidates.  The Definitelies were at 53-51-52 (Angle-Tark-Lowden).  The Probablies were at 33-36-30.  And the Might-Change-My-Minds were at 12-13-17.

The M-D poll published in the RJ on May 28 had Lowden at 30% with Angle at 25% and Tark at 20% (not at 200% as the WaTi story says, although am sure Tarkanian would love it if every Nevadan was voting for him twice).

If you believed those M-D numbers, and if you believe these from this this Suffolk U poll, then you believe Angle has gained eight points while Lowden has slipped by five in just the past five days.

I don’t.

I do find this interesting, though:

When supporters of the other candidates were asked which of the top three hopefuls they would support if they knew their first choice couldn’t win, Mrs. Lowden led at 33 percent, followed by Mr. Tarkanian at 25 percent and Mrs. Angle at 14 percent.

So one-third of those voters whose first choice was Angle or Tark would go with Lowden as their second choice, but only 14% of those whose first choice was Lowden or Tark would go with Angle as next-best.

This is interesting, too:

But when GOP voters were asked which candidate has a better chance of defeating Mr. Reid, Miss Lowden led at 33 percent led again, but this time with Mrs. Angle second at 27 percent and Mr. Tarkanian at 23 percent.

Taken with Angle’s numbers above, this means a segment of Angle voters believe Lowden has a better chance of beating Harry Reid, but they are going to vote for Angle anyhow.

Hat Tip on the poll to @RalstonFlash on Twitter.

Update (at 7:09 AM): Silly me.  The Tea Party Express, not Team Angle, was first out with a press release with the subject line “POLL SHOCKER: Angle Leads Lowden by 8% in Nevada Senate Race” and the header “SHARRON ANGLE TAKES THE LEAD IN NEVADA U.S. SENATE RACE.”



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New Poll Shows Lowden Still Leading, Angle Gaining in U.S Senate Primary

By Nevada News Bureau Staff | 10:46 am April 23rd, 2010

In an automated one-question survey of likely Republican voters conducted for the Nevada News Bureau on April 22 by PMI, Inc., U.S. Senate candidate Sue Lowden earned 41 percent of the vote compared to 24 percent for Danny Tarkanian, 17 percent for Sharron Angle and 18 percent who prefer someone else.

The poll question read as follows:

This is a one question voter information survey being conducted by the Nevada News Bureau. If the election were held today in the Republican primary for United States senate would you vote for Sharron Angle, Sue Lowden, Danny Tarkanian or do you prefer someone else?

For Sharron Angle press 1, for Sue Lowden press 2, for Danny Tarkanian press 3, or if you would prefer someone else press 4.

2,675 individuals participated in the poll, and the survey has a + or – 5% margin of error.

According to a Mason-Dixon GOP primary survey taken in early April in which pollsters floated all the Republican candidates for U.S Senate and questioned 300 Republicans, Lowden drew 45 percent of the vote while Tarkanian earned 27 percent and Angle pulled in just 5 percent.  Chad Christensen earned 4 percent, John Chachas earned 3 percent and 16 percent were undecided.

The Mason Dixon survey had a +/- 6% margin of error.

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More Voters Self-Identifying With Tea Party Movement While Political Elites Scoff

By Elizabeth Crum | 10:00 am April 23rd, 2010

In the days leading up to April 15, the Tea Party movement’s first anniversary, Rasmussen ran a new survey and found that the number of voters who self-identify as part of the Tea Party movement has jumped eight points since March.  Last month, 16% of American voters surveyed identified themselves as Tea Partiers. That number is now at 24%.

The other most interesting finding in poll was the disparity between how the the so-called political elite views the Tea Party movement versus the view of mainstream voters. A whopping 98% percent of the political elite have an unfavorable view of the Tea Party movement.

(Question:  Does this mean anyone who doesn’t view the Tea party movement unfavorably has only a 2% chance of being an elitist?)

While the elites expressed their dislike, 58% of mainstream voters said they had a favorable opinion of Tea Partiers.

Of those surveyed, 55% said they are not part of the movement or do not have any ties to the Tea Party, while 11% said they are unsure.

(Sidebar:  I’m always amazed at this 10% or so of the population who never seem to be sure about anything. Who are these people and why don’t they know their own minds?)

The rise in Tea Party support is attributed in part to the call for the repeal of health care reform. Many of those surveyed said they are convinced that the reform will lead to higher taxes to fund the program at a time when 66% of voters believe they are already overtaxed by the government.

When broken down into political parties, 42% of Republicans say they are members of the Tea Party compared to 24% of independents and just 9% of Democrats.

70% of Republicans have a positive view of the Tea Parties, and 71% of Democrats do not. Unaffiliated voters were evenly divided on their views.

Just over 33% said they believed the Republicans and Democrats are so much alike that a new political party is needed; 47% percent of voters surveyed disagree.

If the Tea Party were to organize a political party, the survey shows this would throw elections to the Democrat by splitting the votes between the Republican and a generic Tea Party candidate: 34% would vote for the Democrat in a 3-way congressional race, while 27% would vote for the Republican and 21% for the Tea Party candidate.

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In Which I Question a New Mason Dixon Poll That Says Sandoval is Up 14 Over Gibbons in the GOP Primary

By Elizabeth Crum | 5:48 pm April 10th, 2010

Thanks to RalstonFlash’s poll preview in his newsletter yesterday afternoon, I was able to talk last night about the today-released poll saying there is a 14-point spread between Sandoval and Gibbons (see “Latest Video” in the sidebar to the right).  Here are more details and the rest of the stats from that new Mason Dixon poll:

In the GOP gubernatorial primary, Gibbons trails Sandoval 25% to 39% percent among likely primary voters.

Montandon was third with 7%.

In the matchup between Reid and Gibbons, 42% chose Reid and 40% Gibbons, with 18% undecided.

In a Reid-Sandoval election, 50% picked Sandoval, 35% chose Reid and 15% were undecided.

The survey was 625 registered Nevada voters Monday through Wednesday. The respondents included 268 Democrats, 230 Republicans and 127 independents, with the majority coming from Clark County, a sampling that reflects voter registration and population distribution in Nevada. The margin of error on statewide questions was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

On questions asked of Republicans only, the margin of error was plus or minus 6 percentage points.

Mason-Dixon poll dude Brad Coker told the RJ it’s “unlikely Gibbons can in two months reverse a tide of negative public opinion that was building when he took office in early 2007 and strengthened during a succession of publicized personal problems and political misstep.”

Unlikely, yes, but not impossible.

And I am not convinced 14 points is really the spread.  Even just allowing for the stated margin of error, we could be talking more like 10 points.  Allow for the fact that the GOP sample was only 230 and you could perhaps shave off a few more points.  And throw in a few voters who might be convinced they don’t like Brian Sandoval so much after all (hello, Dan Hart) and the real gap could be narrow indeed.  Any way you slice it, a single digit span of any kind is not insurmountable in an eight week time span.

Yes, I know Gibbons has close to Zip in his campaign coffers but since cowboying up for the special session and declaring war on the recently passed and rather unpopular health care reform bill, he’s a Rebel With a Cause — and some of the GOP base does in fact love him for it.  Should the Attorney General fail to figure out how to get him to slow down or shut up, Gibbons could yet gain some real traction from the issue.

And Yes, I know Sandoval also supports the health care reform repeal and is now also singing that catchy “no new taxes” song, but Me Too-ism doesn’t usually win the day in politics.  He’ll have to get a little better at thinking up his own stuff or Gibbons will start calling him Mini-Me (and he’ll find himself echoing calls for sharks with laser beams attached to their heads).

Yes, it is whispered here and there — ok, just about everywhere — that Gibbons is “nuts.”  Nuts for thinking he can come back and win the primary; nuts for thinking he can milk and win this health care lawsuit on the way to a general election victory; nuts for putting out half-coherent, error-riddled campaign missives and then admitting he approved them.

You may be right:  Gibbons may be crazy. But it just may be a lunatic they’re looking for.

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New Mason-Dixon Poll Shows Lowden Up Over Tarkanian, Reid (but Tea Party Candidate a Factor)

By Elizabeth Crum | 8:35 am February 28th, 2010

The RJ this morning has the results of a new Mason-Dixon poll.

Lowden beats Reid 52-39% in a head-to-head with Reid and is now up over Tarkanian in the primary 47-29%. (In the primary match-up, Angle got 8% and Chachas got 1%.)

Tarkanian beats Reid 51-40% in a head-to-head.

Both Lowden and Tarkanian win more than 50% of the independent vote, with Reid at 31% against Lowden and 38% against Tarkanian.

The poll shows Reid drawing 36% of voters vs. 32% for a/the GOP candidate and 18% for a/the generic Tea Party candidate.  BUT as I’ve said before, though a/the Tea Party candidate will absolutely drain some support from a Republican candidate, we can’t know how much until we get a better look at the candidate.

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Pew Research Center Poll

By Elizabeth Crum | 8:13 pm February 17th, 2010

Pew Research Center Interactive has a fun 12 question quiz to see how plugged-in to American politics you are.  At the end you’ll see your results including how you measure up to other Americans.

(I was 12 for 12, but I’m a pathetic news and political junkie so don’t feel bad if you don’t do as well.)

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CNN Releases Opinion Research Poll on Tea Party, Third Party

By Elizabeth Crum | 2:11 pm February 17th, 2010

CNN just ran and reported on a poll of Tea Party activists including some questions re: third parties:

Washington (CNN) — Activists in the Tea Party movement tend to be male, rural, upscale, and overwhelmingly conservative, according to a new national poll.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Wednesday also indicates that Tea Party activists would vote overwhelmingly Republican in a two-party race for Congress. The party’s GOP leanings, the poll suggests, may pose a problem for the Tea Party movement if it tries to turn itself into a third party to compete with the two major parties in this year’s general election.

“If the Tea Party runs its own candidates for U.S. House, virtually every vote the Tea Party candidate gets would be siphoned from the GOP candidate, potentially allowing the Democrats to win in districts that they might have otherwise lost,” said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “While the concept of an independent third party is extremely popular, most Americans, including most Tea Party supporters, don’t favor a third party that would result in a winner who disagrees with them on most major issues.”

According to the survey, roughly 11 percent of all Americans say they have actively supported the Tea Party movement, either by donating money, attending a rally, or taking some other active step to support the movement. Of this core group of Tea Party activists, 6 of 10 are male and half live in rural areas.

Nearly three-quarters of Tea Party activists attended college, compared to 54 percent of all Americans, and more than 3 in 4 call themselves conservatives.

“Keep in mind that this is a pretty small sample of Tea Party activists,” Holland said. “But even taking that into account, the demographic gaps that the poll finds between those activists and the general public on gender, education, income, ideology, and voting behavior appear to be significant differences.”

The poll indicates that about 24 percent of the public generally favors the Tea Party movement but has not taken any actions such as donating money or attending a rally. Adding in the 11 percent who say they are active, a total of 35 percent could be described as Tea Party supporters. That larger group is also predominantly male, higher-income, and conservative.

Some 45 percent of all Americans say they don’t know enough about the Tea Party to have a view of the movement; 1 in 5 say they oppose the Tea Party.

According to the survey, most Tea Party activists describe themselves as Independents.

“But that’s slightly misleading, because 87 percent say they would vote for the GOP candidate in their congressional district if there were no third-party candidate endorsed by the Tea Party,” Holland said.

And here’s the part about a/the third party:

So what would happen if the Tea Party supported independent candidates for Congress?

The poll indicates that in a two-way race on the so-called “generic ballot” question, GOP candidates have a 47 percent to 45 percent edge. Throw a Tea Party candidate into the mix, and that two-point advantage becomes a 12-point deficit. That’s because virtually everyone who would vote for a Tea Party candidate in a three-way contest would choose a Republican in a two-way race. The Democratic candidate gets 45 percent in both scenarios, but the GOP candidate’s share of the vote drops from 47 percent in a two-way contest to just 33 percent with a Tea Party candidate on the ballot.

“Historically, that’s the problem many political movements have faced if they try to become a full-fledged party. They often wind up ensuring the victory of the candidate they dislike the most,” Holland added.

Sixty-four percent of all Americans say they like the idea of a third party that would run against the Democrats and Republicans. But only 38 percent would support a third party if its presence on the ballot would mean that the winning candidate is one that disagrees with them on most major issues. According to the poll, Tea Party activists feel the same way: Only 4 in 10 favor a third party that would result in the election of candidates they don’t like.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll was conducted by telephone February 12-15, with 1,023 adult Americans, including 124 respondents who said they had taken active steps to support the Tea Party, such as donating money or attending a rally self. The survey’s overall sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points and plus or minus 9 percentage points for Tea Party activists only.

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