Thanks to RalstonFlash’s poll preview in his newsletter yesterday afternoon, I was able to talk last night about the today-released poll saying there is a 14-point spread between Sandoval and Gibbons (see “Latest Video” in the sidebar to the right). Here are more details and the rest of the stats from that new Mason Dixon poll:
In the GOP gubernatorial primary, Gibbons trails Sandoval 25% to 39% percent among likely primary voters.
Montandon was third with 7%.
In the matchup between Reid and Gibbons, 42% chose Reid and 40% Gibbons, with 18% undecided.
In a Reid-Sandoval election, 50% picked Sandoval, 35% chose Reid and 15% were undecided.
The survey was 625 registered Nevada voters Monday through Wednesday. The respondents included 268 Democrats, 230 Republicans and 127 independents, with the majority coming from Clark County, a sampling that reflects voter registration and population distribution in Nevada. The margin of error on statewide questions was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
On questions asked of Republicans only, the margin of error was plus or minus 6 percentage points.
Mason-Dixon poll dude Brad Coker told the RJ it’s “unlikely Gibbons can in two months reverse a tide of negative public opinion that was building when he took office in early 2007 and strengthened during a succession of publicized personal problems and political misstep.”
Unlikely, yes, but not impossible.
And I am not convinced 14 points is really the spread. Even just allowing for the stated margin of error, we could be talking more like 10 points. Allow for the fact that the GOP sample was only 230 and you could perhaps shave off a few more points. And throw in a few voters who might be convinced they don’t like Brian Sandoval so much after all (hello, Dan Hart) and the real gap could be narrow indeed. Any way you slice it, a single digit span of any kind is not insurmountable in an eight week time span.
Yes, I know Gibbons has close to Zip in his campaign coffers but since cowboying up for the special session and declaring war on the recently passed and rather unpopular health care reform bill, he’s a Rebel With a Cause — and some of the GOP base does in fact love him for it. Should the Attorney General fail to figure out how to get him to slow down or shut up, Gibbons could yet gain some real traction from the issue.
And Yes, I know Sandoval also supports the health care reform repeal and is now also singing that catchy “no new taxes” song, but Me Too-ism doesn’t usually win the day in politics. He’ll have to get a little better at thinking up his own stuff or Gibbons will start calling him Mini-Me (and he’ll find himself echoing calls for sharks with laser beams attached to their heads).
Yes, it is whispered here and there — ok, just about everywhere — that Gibbons is “nuts.” Nuts for thinking he can come back and win the primary; nuts for thinking he can milk and win this health care lawsuit on the way to a general election victory; nuts for putting out half-coherent, error-riddled campaign missives and then admitting he approved them.
You may be right: Gibbons may be crazy. But it just may be a lunatic they’re looking for.
