Posts Tagged ‘general’

Rasmussen Has First Post-Primary Angle-Reid Poll

By Elizabeth Crum | 9:00 am June 10th, 2010

Here.

Angle by 11 points.  5% for “Other.” 6% Undecided.

Poll says “Voters not affiliated with either party prefer Angle by 10 points.”

As I said last night on KTNV, let’s give it about 30 days before we get too excited about numbers.

Team Reid is going to try to crush Angle early and hard so they can call it Done and start focusing resources on all the Dem down-ticket races.

If they hope to have her weather the Category 5 winds of Hurricane Harry (a Harrycane…?) Tea Party Express and/or Club for Growth and/or the RNC better hurry up with major infusions of ad cash into the Nevada airwaves on Angle’s behalf.

Day One of the Campaign to Defeat Sharron Angle in the U.S. Senate Race

By Elizabeth Crum | 6:56 am June 9th, 2010

Actually, it’s Day Two, because the state Democratic party, the DSCC and Progress Now were out with Angle-bashing press releases (and PN with a new website and Twitter user called @Sharrontology) as Angle was still in the midst of her victory speech last night.

Here’s the Progress Now press missive to give you a taste of what’s to come:

Dear Friend,

Republican voters have just veered far to the right in selecting their party’s standard-bearer.

By selecting Sharron Angle as its Senate nominee, Nevada’s GOP has proven it is more committed to appeasing the political whims of the Tea Party and other fringe elements than it is to governing.

We know that’s The Wrong Angle. Wrong for Nevada. Wrong for America.

That’s why we’re launching the website www.TheWrongAngle.com to highlight her dangerous policies and frightening world view.

Angle would eliminate Social Security, the U.S. Departments of Education, Energy, the EPA and the IRS. She’d pull us out of the United Nations and repeal health care for more than 100,000 Nevadans.

We think those views are The Wrong Angle, yet they only scratch the surface of her right-wing agenda.

Please visit the site today, sign up for updates and join us as we work to protect the state this election year.

http://www.TheWrongAngle.com

And to get text message updates from The Wrong Angle text the word “ANGLE” to 30644 (standard rates apply).

Take action today for Nevada’s future.

Yours in progress,

Erin Neff
Executive Director
ProgressNow Nevada

Angle’s Tsunami: Can We Please, PLEASE Think of a New Metaphor?

By Elizabeth Crum | 10:03 am May 27th, 2010

Maybe I’m just grouchy because we’ve been covering campaigns for nine months and June 8 still seems way too far away.  Nevertheless:

Must Sharron Angle continue to repeatedly refer to the “tsunami” of conservativism that is moving “in waves” across the country?  I have heard it uttered at least a dozen times just this past week and shudder to contemplate the total count over the course of the past many months.

And:  has it ever occurred to Angle that a land-hitting tsunami often causes utter devastation and destruction to all who are unfortunate enough to be in its path?  Not sure it’s the best descriptor for Angle’s Tea Party-esque and pet political causes.

(Or is it?)

Wanna take bets on whether Team Reid will use the term (and the frightening visions it musters) to help turn the tide against her if Angle faces him in the general?

I can just see the TV ad starring all of Angle’s most controversial positions over background video of a giant tsunami washing away all that is good and right in America…

The Anti-Angle Argument: She Can’t Win the General

By Elizabeth Crum | 1:12 pm May 24th, 2010

Is there enough time for this line (“The Woman Who Can Save Harry Reid”) — which is TIME online’s echo of this morning’s POLITICO piece (“Reid angles for tea party foe in Nev.”) — to sway the voters and save Sue Lowden’s campaign?

I wondered all last week why Team Lowden was running an ad going after Angle on more flimsy criticisms while ignoring her most obvious weakness:  she’s so conservative on so many issues that she may not be able to beat Reid in the general election.

Team Reid will definitely pummel Angle on that very thing all summer and half the fall.

(It is also worth noting that during the Big Announcement tour last fall, Lowden pledged not to go negative on her GOP primary opponents. But that was when she thought she would easily win and long before the Tea Party Express (and their money) gave Angle a huge boost.)

Hat Tip on the TIME and POLITICO links:  @RalstonFlash on Twitter.

- – -

Speaking of Angle’s conservative creds, this is kinda funny, as Tweeted by Sebelius:

MT @SteveSebelius: Does Sharron Angle think liquor should be illegal? http://bit.ly/bj9x8c

and ReTweeted and commented upon by @RalstonFlash:

Extremism in defense of imbibing is no vice.

How dare Ralston hijack the great words of Barry Goldwater that way?!  I am outraged.  (No, not really.)

(Actually, I bet a lot of Americans don’t know that Goldwater lifted those words — “Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice” — from Roman philosopher/statesman/lawyer Marcus Cicero.)

Anyhow, the linked piece is a post by Sebelius on Angle’s uber-conservative stance on both marijuana and alcohol as expressed in an interview she did a few years back.

Sebelius asks:

Wait, what? Alcohol — which is currently legal — should be treated the same as marijuana — which is currently not legal? Is she serious? A candidate from the state of Nevada, which is practically sponsored by booze companies, is not a proponent of legal alcohol?

Ha.

But then this:

Despite the 2006 interview, however, Angle’s spokesman, Jerry Stacy, said today Angle doesn’t want to bring back Prohibition. “Sharron doesn’t want to make alcohol illegal,” he said, noting that Angle has never introduced legislation along those lines, and even voted against taxes on booze.

“Alcohol is a legal substance, and adults can choose to imbibe,” Stacy said.

So, for the record, Sharron Angle is not a Prohibitionist.

But as Politico points out, she is still for/against all this stuff:

She wants to privatize Social Security; cut federal spending by hundreds of billions of dollars; build nuclear power plants inside Yucca Mountain; abolish the federal income tax and institute a “simpler, fairer, flatter tax system”; “defund Obamacare”; pull the United States out of the United Nations; ban nearly all abortions; get rid of the Energy and Education departments as well as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; and remove all campaign finance restrictions, requiring instead immediate reporting of donations.

And in a state with a large and growing Hispanic population, Angle takes a hard-line view on immigration, siding with the tough new Arizona law that gives law enforcement officials broad discretion to crack down on suspected illegal aliens.

Game Changer? Tea Party Express Endorses Sharron Angle in U.S. Senate Race

By Elizabeth Crum | 10:14 am April 15th, 2010

Leaked to the press here and there last night and announced early this morning via CSPAN and PJTV, the Tea Party Express (TPE) has endorsed Sharron Angle, calling her a  “a hero for conservatives and the tea party movement” and saying there is no candidate “who can match her record of principled conservatism.”

(Sidebar:  Everyone who was having a cow at the rumor of a Chachas endorsement can now relax.)

Joe Wierzbicki, Coordinator for the TPE, said they will “invest the resources necessary for Sharron Angle to win the Republican primary.”

Yeah?  I wonder if Joe & Co. understand what “necessary” means in this case?

If you believe a recent survey of GOP voters, Angle would pull in only 5% of the vote if the primary were held today. I don’t believe that number and based on what I know both of internal polling and what’s going on with Nevada’s grassroots, I’d guess Angle’s actual fraction is closer to between 10 and 15%.

Still, it’s gonna take some major TV time and some lucky breaks to earn her a win in June.  The first of which will be costly and the second of which is up to the Fates.

Ralston says he sees a way:

I have always said in low turnout primary she has a chance — if only she can get money.

And:

Remember Angle, boosted by outside spending by the Club for Growth, almost defeated (400 votes out of 100,000 cast in 5-way race) a much better funded Dean Heller for Congress four years ago. TPE is not CFG. But it may not have to be in this 12-way race.

If TPE gets on TV for Angle, it’s a new ballgame…

I’m not sure this is going to be a low turnout primary, though.  All factions of the base are energized — some of them sporting smiles and their We-Can-Do-It tees while many are scowling and just downright PO’d over one thing or another — so I’m predicting one of the higher turnouts we’ve seen in awhile.

And Angle’s close race against Heller was a different ball game in many ways, so some comparisons may not hold.

But:  that’s not to say Angle doesn’t have a shot at the nomination, though I think it’s a very slim one.  Lowden’s lead and campaign coffers are substantial, and many in the GOP support her because they believe she is the only candidate with a real shot at defeating Harry Reid.

As for the subject of Angle in the general election…

Most (all?) media and political insiders — on both sides of the aisle — say there is just no way Angle can beat Reid.  Even if she can somehow climb and conquer Primary Hill in the 54 days remaining, she’ll have Harry Reid’s $25 million war chest and a very skeptical electorate waiting for her on June 9th.

I’m just not sure there is enough money in the world to buy Angle her November 2nd dream.

To beat Reid, Angle would have to:

– convince moderate Republicans, independents and some conservative Democrats that her as-far-right-as-it-gets outlook on the state’s/nation’s issues is preferable to tolerating Reid for another term

– fend off the Reid-funded TV ads that will predict the fall of civilization if she is elected

– convince Nevada and national donors that she can beat Reid, if only she has the bank, such that they generously open their checkbooks

IF she could do all that and somehow, some way eke out a win, it would be The political story of the year — and by far the biggest Tea Party victory yet.

Is the vision of that improbable, incredible headline — “Angle Beats Reid!” — enough to get major money flowing in and give Angle better than her current snowball’s chance of taking down the most powerful man in the U.S. Senate?  You may laugh at the suggestion that she could ever carve out such a scenario, but you can be sure the vision and the hope of that very thing will bring Tea Party money pouring in to her campaign should she survive the primary.

Harry Reid is so deeply, viscerally hated that I can envision one million “plus” Tea Partiers and conservatives from across the land donating $25 each to Angle in various online moneybomb fundraising events — the same kind that quickly raised many millions for Scott Brown in Massachusetts — which would at least even up the money game.

The New Help-Rory-by-Way-of-Helping-Gibbons-by-Way-of-Criticizing-Sandoval Ad Campaign

By Elizabeth Crum | 11:50 am April 6th, 2010

As Flashed by Ralston earlier, we will soon see the launch of a “campaign that could fundamentally change the dynamic of the GOP governor’s race.”

According to Democratic uber-strategist Dan Hart, with whom I spoke a few moments ago, “The Committee to Protect Nevada Jobs” is slated to launch an independent expenditure TV campaign that will “keep Nevada’s voters well informed” about their gubernatorial candidates.

Ralston reported that the campaign will be critical of GOP gubernatorial candidate Brian Sandoval in order to help Jim Gibbons win the primary so Rory Reid will (presumably) have a better chance to win the general.

But Hart said the campaign “may also include information sharing about other gubernatorial candidates” and that “it should not be assumed this is an anti-Sandoval campaign, per se.”  Hart confirmed that TV ads will begin running next week and said the committee’s website will also launch at that time. And that we can expect various press releases as well.

My three cents:

Sandoval is still not well known by many voters so there is definitely an opportunity for the opposition to define him.  Team Sandoval probably should have seen this coming and gotten out in front by launching some warm and fuzzy get-to-know-Brian ads about 30 days back.

Too late for that now, but Sandoval is finally going up with his first TV ad this week.

As for whether this new committee will really “share information” about non-Sandoval gubernatorial candidates — we’ll see.  With Dan Hart, one of Nevada’s sharpest Democratic strategists, behind the effort, I’d guess we can count on the campaign to target whoever the ongoing surveys are saying is most likely to beat Rory Reid in the general election.

Re-stated:  A weak GOP nominee is Rory’s only hope.