Krolicki Out, Marshall In, Amodei Pending

As first “guessed” by @RalstonFlash on Twitter this morning — Nevada has learned the hard way that Ralston’s guesses are not mere speculation but informed fact — Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki has formally announced that he is not going to run for Nevada’s open congressional seat.

State GOP chairman Mark Amodei will now be free to make his final decision, probably to jump in.

The success of the GOP’s lawsuit against the Secretary of State re: the special election rules is Amodei’s best shot at the congressional seat. The central committee would almost certainly nominate him now that Krolicki is out of the picture. However, in an an open election, Amodei is by no means a lock because he is not a favorite with much of the conservative base (due, among other things, to the 2003 tax hike in which he participated).

If the GOP lawsuit fails, as many on both sides of the aisle think it will, the man with the next best shot to win the hearts and minds of Republican voters is probably state Senator Greg Brower — IF he can convince enough of the GOP base that he is not an “establishment” candidate. If he cannot, then former U.S.S. Cole Cmdr. Kirk Lippold might be able to take advantage of the situation (and we can expect Lippold’s campaign to paint both Brower and Amodei as career politicians while pitching their guy as a military hero, conservative family man, and voice of the people).

As for the Democrats, State Treasurer Kate Marshall is in (also first Tweeted by Ralston, yesterday). It remains to be seen whether any other serious Dem contenders take a shot at it.