Sandoval Up Over Gibbons 47-33, Female and Non-Tea Party Voters Are Deciding Factor

As Flashed by Ralston early last night and posted by the RJ sometime this morning, Gibbons has gained a bit but is still 14 points behind Sandoval in the gubernatorial race.

The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research poll shows Montandon (still) at just 6%.  I guess Mayor Mike will soon have to start thinking about What’s Next.  If it helps him feel any better, I do think he is an “electable conservative.”  He might want to consider aiming a little lower than the state’s highest executive office, though.

The poll says the Undecideds are at 12%.

It’s notable that among Republican men, Gibbons and Sandoval are tied at 41%, but the GOP female voters break strongly for Sandoval:  54% prefer him while Gibbons’ is liked by just 24%.

While many women do enjoy watching a good soap opera, I guess Governor Gibbons gave them a little Too Much drama.

Also, among GOP voters who do not self-ID as Tea Party members, Gibbons is liked by only 31% while Sandoval earns 49%.

I find it interesting that only 18% of the Republicans polled ID’d themselves as “members” of the Tea Party while 82% said they are not members.  But then 64% said they “support the agenda” of the Tea Party movement.  These folks are casually rooting for the Tea Party from the comfort of their couches, I guess?

Anyhow, in a general election match-up against Rory Reid, 51% percent went with Sandoval (compared to 37% for the Senate Majority Leader’s son).

It should be noted that 14 points is not an unbridgeable gap (except, of course, if it’s the week before the election) especially when you have $2.6 million cash on hand and the state Dem Machine warming up in the engine room, as Rory does.

Having said that, it looks like Brian Sandoval will probably be our next governor.  But I’ll be interested to see how many points the Dems can shave off his lead, and how they go about it, between now and November.