Titus Has Raised $1.3M, Has 3-to-1 Money Edge Over Heck

As Flashed by Ralston just now, Titus has:

$900K on hand

And raised:

$250K in first quarter

Ryan Erwin told the RJ this weekend that Heck had $170K cash on hand at end of ’09 and that he raised $160K during Q1.

Which reminds me to recap and comment on the Heck-Titus results from the Mason Dixon poll released this weekend.

First, the poll results and what the RJ said about them:

– Heck would get 49% of the vote if the election were held today; Titus would take home 44%; with 7% un­decided. The survey had a 6 percentage points margin of error.

– A previous Mason-Dixon poll in December showed a Titus-Heck matchup in a 40-40 dead heat.

– 45% had an unfavorable opinion of Titus compared with 15% for Heck.

– Titus won both the popularity — and the unpopularity — contests. 41% had a favorable view of Titus versus 34% favorable for Heck.

– 300 voters in CD-3 were surveyed.

So it looks like Heck may have the edge.  But it should be noted that the sampling was pretty small and the margin of error (MOE) was +/- 6 points.

(FYI:  A sampling of 500 is pretty much the standard minimum for a poll if you want a MOE below 5% (and you usually do). When the big pollsters do national surveys, they call at least 1,000 peeps to get an MOE of +/- 3.)

The thing with these Heck-Titus numbers is that 49-44, with an MOE of 6 points, could also be 55-38.

Or 43-50.

Bottom line, Heck may or may not really be leading by 5 points.