Mason Dixon #s on US Senate Race

News Flash:  Sue Lowden is still the GOP candidate most likely to win a chance to take down the most powerful Senator in the land.  Even with the “Tea Party” candidate on the ballot.  So says the latest poll at the LVRJ.  Some snippets:

– Reid’s unfavorables are at 56% and just four out of 10 voters say they’d pull the lever for him.

– BUT:  Reid will have around $25M to spend on winning hearts and minds.

– If the GOP primary election were held today, survey says:

■ Lowden would win 45%

■ Tarkanian, 27%

■ Angle, 5%

■ Christensen, 4%

■ Chachas, 3%

– 16% were undecided and the other seven (!!) GOP hopefuls didn’t register on the radar

– In the general election match-up with three named candidates — including Scott Ashjian, Tea Party of Nevada candidate — the poll showed:

■ Lowden would win with 46%, Reid would get 38%, and Ashjian would get 5% — with 11% undecided

So…if the Undecideds were to split three ways and somewhat evenly, or split evenly between Reid and Ashjian, Lowden still has the edge.  Reid would have to win virtually all the Undecideds to pull it off.

■ Tarkanian v. Reid: each would get 39% with Ashjian picking up 11% (and that same 11% is undecided)

On Ashjian:

– 1% had a favorable opinion of him, 13% had an unfavorable opinion, 27% were neutral, and 59% didn’t recognize his name.

Sampling info:  The statewide telephone poll questioned 625 registered voters who said they vote regularly in state elections. It has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. For the GOP primary survey, pollsters questioned 300 Republicans, and the results had a 6 percentage point margin of error.

From the RJ story:

The Reid campaign also contends the Mason-Dixon poll isn’t a true ballot test because it doesn’t include the full general election slate of eight candidates, including the Democratic senator who faces little-known primary opposition, the GOP nominee, several nonpartisan candidates and one each from the Independent American Party and the Tea Party of Nevada, and “none of these candidates.”

Also, the Reid campaign insists that once a Republican nominee is chosen, the senator will be able to make a case for why voters should send him back to Washington for a fifth Senate term instead of a freshman Republican lawmaker whose record and positions Reid is prepared to pick apart.

Yep.  If Reid can use that $25M to make gains and the vote splits enough different ways and in the right proportions on November 2nd, he could still pull it off.  He knows it; we all know it.

Also from the RJ piece:

Tarkanian’s campaign credited Lowden’s early, six-figure TV ad campaign for putting her ahead of the GOP pack, and is counting on a late surge with stepped up TV and radio ads for a comeback. He’s launching a new TV ad Monday, featuring supporters talking about the leadership style of the real estate businessman and former University of Nevada, Las Vegas basketball star, his campaign said.

“We have not gone into full campaign mode with advertising,” said Jamie Fisfis, a consultant for Tarkanian who said his internal polling shows his client doing well. “Obviously we expect things to change. Our goal is to be ahead on June 8 not April 8.”

Sure, sure.  But 18 points in 8 weeks…?

We can definitely expect to see plenty of Lowden-bashing from both the Reid and Tarkanian camps in the next two months.