The New York Times got its hands on some emails related to the Doug Hampton job-as-severance scandal that’s at the center of the ethics investigation (remember the ethics investigation?) of Senator Ensign.  Here’s yesterday’s story followed up by a post showing actual emails and documents.

The Times says the emails “appear to undercut the senator’s assertion that he did not know the work might involve congressional lobbying, which could violate a federal ban on such activities by staff members for a year after leaving government.”

Indeed they do.  One pointed email from Hampton to Ensign said:

“You ensured me that you would have no issues getting at least three clients and that more than likely I would make more money consulting than I did working for the Senate.”

Seems likely the Senate Ethics Committee will (finally) find that Ensign did indeed violate Senate ethics rules.

And that Ensign will have to do what he has been avoiding for months:  resign and give up on 2012.

The political fallout should be interesting.  The GOP’s first, early choice to run against Harry Reid was Congressman Dean Heller, but Heller decided against it in part because he was betting Ensign would not be running in 2012.  If Ensign resigns, Heller will probably be The Guy.

Had Ensign stepped down before the close of candidate filings this Friday, his seat would have been open heading into the June primaries.  Since he will now resign (if he does) after the filing deadline, Governor Gibbons would/will appoint a temporary replacement and the state Republican and Democratic central committees would/will nominate candidates to appear on the November ballot.

Heller’s prospects in a statewide election?  Well, he beat Democrat Jill Derby 50-45 percent in 2006 and won by 52-41 last time around in the mostly rural 2nd Congressional District where GOP voters outnumbered Dems by about 22K. It could be a different story statewide, though, as Democrats now outnumber registered Republicans by about 66K (and/so, once again, the independent and third party voters could play a big part).

Side note:  There was some speculation last summer that Governor Gibbons, suffering from low voter approval but an unreasonably high opinion of himself, might appoint himself to Ensign’s seat.  Gibbons said, no, he wouldn’t.  (He also said he would not appoint Brian Sandoval, his main rival in the gubernatorial primary.) Wonder if those assertions still hold true for our dear governor-in-trouble…?

I suppose I should mention that former Rep. Jon Porter, who lost to Dina Titus in 2008 but is (according to all reports) by no means Out of politics, is also a piece of this puzzle, and of course there would be other hats thrown in, but it seems to me Heller is the clear GOP front-runner to replace Ensign by appointment and/or election.