Poll Shows Sandoval Benefiting in Three-Way Race for Governor

(Updated at 2:14 p.m. on Nov. 23.)

CARSON CITY – If Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman runs as an independent candidate for governor, he would pull more support from Democrat Rory Reid than Republican Brian Sandoval in a three-way match up, a Nevada News Bureau poll shows.

The automated poll of active voters conducted Friday and Saturday generated 3,080 responses, with 35 percent supporting Sandoval, 28 percent supporting Goodman, 21 percent supporting Reid and 16 percent preferring some other candidate.

Goodman has not decided yet whether to run for governor, and if so, as a Democrat or independent.

The poll shows Sandoval received 76 percent of his support from Republicans, 15 percent from Democrats and the remainder from other parties and nonpartisan voters.

Goodman saw his support come from Democrats, 49 percent; Republicans, 36 percent; and the remainder from other parties and nonpartisans

Reid received 78 percent of his support from Democrats, 13 percent from Republicans and the remainder from other parties and nonpartisan voters.

The poll, conducted by P.M.I. Inc., has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. Twenty percent of those responding were in Washoe County, 57 percent were in Clark and the rest were in the rural counties.

In Clark County, Goodman received 41 percent, Sandoval had 26 percent, Reid had 21 percent and the rest preferred someone else.

In Washoe, Sandoval had 47 percent, Reid had 29 percent, Goodman had 8 percent and the rest preferred someone else.

Sandoval pulled the best numbers in the rural counties.

Jerry Dorchuck, chairman and CEO of P.M.I. Inc., said the results clearly show Goodman would be a significant factor for Reid if he ran as a nonpartisan in the general election.

“If you’re Sandoval, you would love to see Goodman in the race as an independent,” he said.

Based on a Nevada News Bureau poll from last week, which showed Reid and Goodman in a neck-and-neck race in a Democratic primary, Dorchuck said he does not believe Goodman would win in a Democratic primary contest with the Clark County Commission chairman and son of U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.

“So if he is going to do this as an Independent, Goodman has to make a decision pretty soon,” he said. “I don’t see Rory Reid stopping at anything to win the primary.”

Goodman is a registered Democrat. He would have to change his voter registration by the end of December to run as an Independent.

Mike Trask, press secretary to Reid, said there will be multiple polls between now and election day and, “all we can do is to keep sharing Rory’s vision with the voters and work hard to make him our next governor.”

As to Goodman’s plans, “we have no idea what Oscar plans to do,” Trask said.

Mary-Sarah Kinner, a spokeswoman for the Sandoval campaign, said: “We continue to be encouraged by the support we are getting across Nevada.”

Goodman had no comment on the results.

In a separate poll in which 1,672 people responded, the Nevada News Bureau gauged the views of the three-way race among registered voters who have not voted in the past five years.

The results of the statewide poll were similar to the survey of active voters, with 34 percent supporting Sandoval, 29 percent supporting Goodman, 19 percent supporting Reid and 18 percent preferring some other candidate.

In Clark County, Goodman led among those inactive voters surveyed with 59 percent, Sandoval had 25 percent and Reid had 19 percent. In Washoe County, Sandoval led with 48 percent, followed by Reid with 22 percent and Goodman with 10 percent.

The survey respondents were 59 percent from Clark County, 20 percent from Washoe and 21 percent in the rural counties.

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